Showing posts with label Exxon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Exxon. Show all posts

Monday, August 06, 2012

The Core Strengths of Apple Computer

April of 2010

The Problem


Apple Computer (AAPL) has had a tremendous growth run over the past decade, during which time it has become a leader in many market segments including music sales, mobile devices, and smart phones. This growth is also reflective in their stock price, where it has gone from around $30 per share in 2000, to above $300 in 2010. With just over 900 million shares available on the market, Apple is currently worth $280 billion in market capitalization, making it the second largest publicly traded company in the world, behind Exxon.
With this amazing return to market dominance from near extinction in the late 1990’s, the question all investors, businesspeople, and others associated with Apple should ask is whether the success can be sustained. Can Apple continue to innovate and create new markets and devices that capture the needs and wants of consumers, and businesses?

Data and Information, and Analysis


Many previous market leaders have been knocked off the pedestal of dominance, including IBM, Microsoft, AOL, Lehman Brothers, MCI, Napster, etcetera, by their competition. In fact, Apple’s new market valuation placed it ahead of Microsoft for the first time since 1995. Arguably one of the major factors that changed Apple’s trajectory of doom was reinstating Steve Jobs to the board of directors in 1996 after a boardroom coup that ousted CEO Gil Amelio. Although Amelio was one of the best CEO’s to ever run Apple, and had scored some major advances for the company, it was Jobs that set Apple on a course of dominance in music and mp3 players – which saved the company. When Napster, and music file trading, became popular in 1999, Jobs foresaw the need for a better way to organize and keep track of music collections on the computer, which Apple followed through on by introducing iTunes. Almost immediately, the need was seen for a portable device that could store and play the music files and integrate with iTunes, and thus the iPod was born. Jobs was savvy enough to know that the iPod, if done right, could start to convert computer users to buying other Apple devices, such as computers.
A few years later, Jobs struck a deal with Intel to use Intel processors in all Apple products. This was the 3rd major advance in product selection that Jobs made which directly affected the sales of Apple computers to once skeptical customers. It made it possible to run both Mac OS software and Windows Software on the same machine, something that cannot be done vice versa.
Only a short time after that, Jobs announced the iPhone. The iPhone is a revolutionary product that has changed everything in the phone industry, both directly through Apple’s own innovation, and from stirring competition from new devices such as Google Android phones. In only a few short years, the way we think about mobile technology has changed rapidly. The internet is available almost anywhere, and phone apps are constantly changing the way we do things.
So far, Apple, with Jobs at the helm, has stayed ahead of the competition and has ensured its own success by creating new ways of doing things and new products that the consumer wants to use and own. And while no one yet has had a formidable answer to iTunes and the iPod, Google’s Android platform poses a serious threat to first the iPhone, and soon will threaten the iPad, the iPod, and iTunes.

SWOT Analysis


Apple’s strengths in the current market are many. Steve Jobs is likely their largest strength, followed by their dominating positions in music sales with iTunes and the iPod, their dominance in smartphones with the iPhone, and their dominance in emerging mobile web devices like the iPad. They are also gaining more and more strength in the computing markets with the Macbook and iMac product lines. Apple is also a key innovator in mobile search and advertising technologies, and in web based TV and DVR technology with their Apple TV product.
Their main weakness is in penetration to business markets. They are not strong in server hardware or software technologies, where companies like Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, and Dell do much better. They are far behind in desktop search and applications, as well as in “cloud-computing” platforms such as web mail and office applications that are hosted on the internet. Microsoft and Google dominate these areas more fully. Something that is always a weakness with Apple products is that, while they are reliable, they are highly controlled. Many device users want to have flexibility and variety in software and application offerings, which Apple many times does not have. Apple has significant opportunities to gain market share in business technology. With many business people using iPods, iPads, and iPhones, Apple could use this as leverage to begin creating and selling other products business people can use to do business and solve problems. This could come from new cloud computing services, or it could come from new ways of completing tasks with computers than we currently do in the business world.
Apple has a significant threat from Google. While Google is not a device maker like Apple, Google operates a highly profitable business in developing search and cloud computing applications that pose the potential of eroding the need for complex devices. Google has also launched a powerful competitor to the iPhone software called Android. The Android software is not limited to one device, and can be used on phones, tablets, and music players. Apple also faces the constant possibility of Entertainment Industry changes that would make the iTunes store and service irrelevant. Changes such as the Comcast purchase of NBC could change how entertainment content is delivered to mobile devices, as companies who own the distribution and internet networks change the way they do business with retailers (or become their own retailer).

Introduction


“…something that feels like magic.”
In the year 2010, Apple became the largest technology company in the world and the second largest company by market capitalization. Apple surpassed Microsoft in both revenue and profit for the first time in more than twenty years. That is a long way to come from near irrelevance which they narrowly escaped in 1997. (Manjoo, 68) Through creativity, innovation, and impeccable foresight and planning, Apple quickly righted their course in 1997 and became a leader in producing and marketing highly ingenious devices that became essential to daily life. This new direction, product quality, and ease of use soon captured the loyalty of their customers who began to want more out of their electronic devices.
Amazingly, Apple was able to continually deliver great products that smashed the competition and jump started uncultivated industries that never let the Apple faithful down. This success since 1997 has generated hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth for the company and its shareholders, has transformed the mobile device world, and has made us rethink the way we transact business, entertainment, and information on the go. It is on a mission to “redefine elegance…[make] the product the hero…we try to capture something that feels like magic.” – Wilhelm Oehl (Manjoo, 69)
Being at the top of the computer world is fleeting, and as with so many before them, Apple computer is now vulnerable to be the next big business to face attack. Those who are now their business partners could quickly become competitors. Loyal customers could start to find their needs better met elsewhere. Apple management or employees could lose focus and alienate their customer base. Steve Jobs could step down, move on, or pass away unexpectedly. What strengths can Apple draw upon, and what weaknesses can they surmount to ensure they are not the next big tech company to topple?

Research Methods


Because business is an art more than a science, success in business comes from many different factions, and almost never comes from one strategy alone. While one great idea or one major blunder can have a large effect on a business, most of the time the success or failure of the organization comes from many things coming together to cause the result. Such is the case with the success of Apple Inc, for which reason, broad analysis and research was used to determine where the successes came from within the organization that caused it to blossom.
The types of information used in the analysis are as follows: business and academic journals, press releases, analyst statements, computer and consumer trend publications, observations, discussions with Mac users, stock market charts and histories, books written by executives, and case studies.
Most research examinations will use academic journals, books, and histories, and it was felt that adding to that information with observations, discussions, press releases, analyst statements, and stock market data would provide other ‘social’ data that may not be written information, but is nonetheless interesting in determining why Apple was successful and how they can remain successful in the future. This data is also highly useful when analyzing an organization to find strengths in their current operations, weaknesses in their strategies, where the opportunities lie ahead, and what threatening storms might come their way.

Summary of Research


Apple has core products, people, philosophies, and ideas that it continues to use which drives its success. Simplicity, reliability, elegance, getting it right, and market power are the company’s key strengths. It is the ability to continue creating, adding to, and reusing these fundamentals that is critical to the future success of the company.
The past success of the company has relied on two major aspects: consumer buzz, and investors. (Manjoo) Steve Jobs himself is the largest investor in the company, along with other Silicon Valley gurus like Larry Ellison of Oracle. Microsoft itself was an investor in 1997 which played a role in keeping Apple alive and returning to profitability, though this was likely our of the need to keep a competitor around to avoid issues with the US Department of Justice than anything else. (Amelio) The success of the stock creates interest in the company, and as more and more become involved in its success as shareholders, the effects of Apple’s product success is magnified In order to maintain the buzz around their products, and keep investors flocking to the markets to buy Apple stock, Apple must continue to wow industry analysts, publicists, and the public in general at events such as Mac World, and in press releases. So far, Apple’s ability to utilize Jobs in this role has been impeccable. Jobs has also become famous for writing philosophical blog entries on the current state of the industry. Whether it’s his “Thoughts on Music”, or his more recent “Thoughts on Flash” article, Jobs keeps himself and his company in the middle of the debate on popular computing, social computing, and technological topics.

Analysis

Thoughts on Apple’s Products and Assets

Mac World


It seems to all start here. Even before Steve Jobs returned to Apple, Mac World was a major event in publicizing Apple’s innovations and launching products. Former Apple CEO Gil Amelio stated “Mac world attendees always expect to hear what’s new and what’s ahead directly from the Apple CEO.” (Amelio)
Steve Jobs is constantly doing Mac World events and press releases, which adds to the hype. It is one of the ways that Apple cultivates a religious fervor. People flock to see Jobs introduce his next gadget. The Apple faithful are so converted that “…for some people it's just like a true religion…" (Martin Lindstrom, Manjoo, 72). These Mac World keynote addresses and product launches reinvigorate the Apple followers, like a general conference or a revival would for other followings.
Such an expectation should not be taken lightly, or for granted, and is nearly unprecedented in the business world as a whole. Yet Apple has used it for decades to drive its products and create a buzz like no other company can. Indeed, the Mac faithful have more than a nation, they have a world.

Steve Jobs

Already mentioned previously, Jobs is a major asset to Apple. Jobs has mastered the art of knowing what the consumer wants and not focusing so much on how to deliver it. The how can always be thought of after you know what to deliver. Gil Amelio writes that before Jobs took over at Apple, they had warehouses “stuffed with $600 million worth of unsellable computers.” And while Amelio faults Jobs for what he calls “narrow perspective as a salesman and marketer extraordinaire,” others have pointed out that such “narrow mindedness” is what keeps Apple in business.
When Apple purchased the technology they needed to make the DVD burning software called iDVD, Operations Manager Mike Evangelist was given the task of putting the software together. Once they thought they had all of the ideas they needed to present to Jobs, he astounded them by walking into the meeting, and changing everything. "He doesn't look at any of our work. He picks up a marker
and goes over to the whiteboard. He draws a rectangle. 'Here's the new application,' he says. 'It's got one window. You drag your video into the window. Then you click the button that says BURN. That's it. That's what we're going to make.'" (Manjoo, 78) Evangelist knew immediately that what Jobs had said was right, and that the idea he had come up with would be much better for the consumer.
The ability to maintain a focus on the long term and on the needs of the customer can only come from someone who has been there, has seen the failures, has seen the wrong products launched, and who has not given up at being the best. Steve Jobs is that man for Apple.

iMac

The iMac holds the prestige of being the major Apple product (other than the switch to Steve Jobs’s NeXT operating system in 1997) that helped Apple to turn the corner and begin the building blocks to an innovative future. The iMac was a kind of throwback to the original Macintosh computer released in 1984, being a monitor and computer housed in the same case. It also featured innovations such as all USB input, no floppy drive, and could easily get to the internet. They say it only took 2 steps. It was also a foreshadowing to Apple’s soon to be renowned symbolic branding and design, which was a refreshing change to the “beige box” computer designs of the day. Apple also redesigned their Apple logo to be a white silhouette Apple, rather than the older “rainbow” Apple of the past. It was all symbolic of the major transformation we would witness from Apple.

iTunes


Apple also created, in the wake of Napster being shutdown in the late 1990’s, what would become a massive media outlet in iTunes, which has now seen billions in revenue. iTunes is unique in that it offers many different kinds of media for download, from movies, to TV series, to music, to radio broadcasts, and independent artist content. As with other Apple businesses, iTunes usually can weigh in heavily enough to control the terms of distribution for the media. That means Apple is in strict control of the revenue stream that iTunes generates, making it a valuable business asset.
iTunes doesn’t stop there, in its promise for Apple, however. iTunes at its core still serves the same function for which it was created. When music downloading became a huge medium for distribution with the advent of Napster, Steve Jobs wanted a way to organize the media efficiently. The iTunes software is now cross-platform and serves as a tool for organizing your collection, whether only a few albums or tens of thousands of albums. And it is not just limited to content which was downloaded from iTunes. This had tremendous effect on the next purpose of iTunes, which was to organize music on mobile devices. The first of these mobile devices was the ever so popular iPod.

iPod

Now in its 4th generation, the iPod changed everything. Before the iPod was released, the ability to carry your downloaded music with you was amateur at best. Clunky mp3 players that used mp3 encoded optical discs, burned cds in CD Walkmans, or primitive hard drive based mp3 players were the only way to do it. The iPod changed that with its sleek design that allowed for large storage amounts, an easily readable screen, and an easy way to scroll through all of your music. At first, the iPod would only work with other Mac computer products. This was intentional and caused many first time buyers who wanted an iPod to also purchase Apple computers. Only down the road, when the trend of getting people hooked on Apple products was solidified, was the iPod released for use with Windows based machines.
Companies that once dominated computer and media devices like Microsoft and Sony, were being left in the dust. Sony Walkmans, a mainstay of mobile music for nearly 20 years, are nowhere to be found today. Sony also tried to create media-centric computers, but their success pales in comparison to that of Apple. Microsoft tried its hand at revamping its media player software on Windows, but even today many Windows users use iTunes, and they were extremely late to the mp3 player market with their Zune device, which for all intents and purposes, has failed to gain any traction versus the iPod. Its just another way Apple is continuing the trend of trumping Microsoft.

iPhone


There are smartphones, and then there’s the iPhone. In retrospect, it is amazing that the mobile phone market leaders like Nokia and Research In Motion didn’t beat Apple to creating a device like the iPhone. The Blackberry, for all of its good features, doesn’t even come close to the functionality, elegance, and “swiss-army-knife” usability of the iPhone. The ads get it right when they say, hey “there’s an app for that.”

iPad


The iPad appears to be a product that is designed to help Apple enter the enterprise world. With specially designed apps, the same OS and many of the same features as the iPhone, as well as easy access to corporate email on the go, the iPad is a great device for salespeople, presenters, and service people on the go.
The iPad as a reading device could also, finally, give rise to digitally delivered print media like newspapers, magazines, and books. Already there are a handful of apps from the likes of the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and other paid publications that update each day with the content they have published. Steve Jobs may be ushering in the days of real-time newspapers, which is something the laptop has failed to do.

MacBook

The MacBook laptop series has always been the flagship laptop system since it was launched, replacing previous flagship laptops from Apple such as the Powerbook and iBook. Powerful, yet easy to use, the MacBook has penetrated many different creative industries such as music, film, and animation, and has become a hit among college students. With the recent product extentions such as the Air, which is so thin it can fit in a large envelope, the MacBook product line will remain relevant for a very long time, and is a consistent seller at the Apple Store.

The Apple Store


The Apple store, although it is a retail service, is one of the most innovative product lines of Apple Inc. In fact, it has revolutionized retail, and has become one of the most successful retail operations in history. In just 3 short years after its launch, the Apple store had become a billion dollar retailer.
What makes the Apple Store innovative its modern, uncluttered design, and how easy it is to demo, learn about, and purchase a product. You can also take any Apple device, no matter where you bought it, to the Apple store for repair or upgrade, usually for free. It’s a hands on buying experience for electronics in an ever increasingly virtual world. Apple also utilizes a complex marketing channel, with some channel partners, direct sales, retailers, and distributors (At&t), of which the Apple Store is a major component in the retail space. Because of their complex marketing scheme, they can utilize administrative control over their distributors, retailers, and channel partners to ensure that the product message, perception, and price are consistent, making the buying experience for Apple customers that much more efficient. (Kerin, Hartley, and Rudelius, 289)
The timeline below shows the evolution of the Apple product offering over time from 1998 to the current year of 2010. Almost every product released on the timeline has been successful in boosting Apple’s bottom line, and fulfilling the needs of Apple customers. Figure 4.9.a (Apple Products Timeline 1998-2010)

Observations and Conclusions

A New World


Based on the information obtained from the Apple Products Timeline, we can look at the timeline data overlaid on a stock chart of Apple Inc. since 1998. This chart illustrates that these extremely successful products have won the support of investors as well as customers of Apple. Since 1998, the stock price has gone up over 9,000%, meaning that a $10 investment in Apple 12 years ago would be worth nearly $90,000 today.
Figure 5.1.a (AAPL Ticker Chart and Apple Products Timeline) While the iMac, Apple Store, and iPod did not immediately change the trajectory of Apple’s stock trading, their launches coincided with a foundation for the stock value that has never again been tested. Since those early years of the new Apple revolution, the stock has continued to grow, even through two recessions. And yet these trends are not only seen on a stock chart.
Sitting in a coffee shop, library, or on a train or bus, you can see Apple’s success story all around you. It would seem that users of Apple devices have been fully integrated into the vision Steve Jobs had of organizing media and information. People are using their Mac computers to DJ or perform music at live events or concerts. They are seen using Mac’s at coffee shops, doing homework, writing, watching movies or TV, or browsing the ever public internet. You can see them at restaurants with their iPods or iPhones sharing videos or watching online content from YouTube with others at the table. Ride a train or bus, and you will see them conducting business on a Mac laptop or more recently, an iPad, while simultaneously listening to music, gaming, or chatting away on an iPod or iPhone. Businesses are aware of this, and many cafés and shops offer recharging stations and free internet. Many businesses are starting to develop apps for these devices that make doing business with their customers that much easier. Once considered an afterthought in businesses enterprise networks and universities, support for Apple devices is starting to become more prevalent. Much of this trend can be attributed to employees having Apple products at home (Sturdevant, 30), and preferring to use the same devices at work. And employers are catching on that it might be easier to let them use devices they are familiar with rather than train them to use a different platform. Apple products also carry with them a very high reputation for reliability, uptime, and long product lifecycles – something businesses are always concerned with. However, Apple still controls very little in the way of the enterprise market space. According to the Forrester report by Emil Protalinski for July 2009, Macs still only account for 3.6 percent of corporate machines. (As published by Sturdevant, 30).
This data means that integration of Apple products in corporate and organizational networks remains a challenge to businesses and users. This observation is legitimized by Paul Bleicher’s article “The Evolution of the Desktop Computer” where he writes “As desktop computing rapidly grew increasingly complex through more sophisticated programs, operating systems, and networking, the cost of corporate computer system support grew exponentially, and the frustrations of end users followed. These issues, multiplied by thousands of users, have driven corporate IT leaders toward radically different solutions for the desktop computer to control costs, improve the quality of the computer experience for the end user, and increase efficiency in the workforce. The changing nature of the workforce creates evolutionary pressure on the desktop.” (Bleicher 44)
Observations also show where the competition is succeeding. Most of the competition comes from the Android enabled devices such as phones, and soon will come from tablets similar to the iPad. Eventually, we’ll see Android enabled iPods. The success of the Android phones is quite surprising, and exploits some of Apple’s weaknesses in their products, such as a locked down App Store, a finite amount of storage space (Androids can support as many SD cards as you can handle), and limited network partnership with AT&T only. Additionally, many people can be seen streaming movies and content to these devices from providers such as Netflix, which has recently been on a successful tear with their library of streaming content. Streaming the content bypasses the need to download it, which requires a wait time, and leaves more control in the hands of the copyright owners as to the means of distribution. It is also normally less expensive for the distributor, meaning Netflix likely has a better margin of return on the streaming accounts than iTunes has on downloads, making usership the new ownership. Usership of Netflix has expanded astronomically since streaming was first offered, and makes Netflix a prime competitor to iTunes since iTunes is a download store for the most part.
This is illustrates the trend toward cloud-computing as a whole. Cloud computing is the ability to let web based services do the major processing and crunching of data cycles, and then send it quickly through the internet to the end user. Cloud computing puts many ‘traditional’ software, hardware, and information technology creators at risk. Cloud computing is disruptive, and as we’ve seen before with desktop computing and the internet, disruptive ideas tend to make the impossible possible. Storing files to individual computers may soon become obsolete, in exchange for storing them in “the cloud” where they can be accessed from anywhere there is an internet connection, and practically can be accessed from any internet enabled device. The cloud also increasingly offers the ability to work collaboratively on documents, software, and other projects with others simultaneously, with changes to the project reflected in real time.
For companies like Apple, who’s marketing methods center around strict control of their marketing channel, meaning they control the types of software available to their devices, such variety and diversity among the cloud computing services available to internet users means cloud computing isn’t necessarily welcome. Ironically, it was the idea of internet enabled devices that inspired the iMac, which was the first major device offered by Apple that helped turn the company around and is still a product mainstay for Apple.

Recommendations

“The Path Less Traveled By…”


Apple must remain true to that idea of a connected, integrated iLife in order to survive any storms that the cloud computing evolution will throw at it. However, it must do so in a way that no other company is currently doing or will do in the future. As has been shown, Apple has thrived on the ability to look at a problem, and present a solution that no other company has.
They can do so by not worrying about “missing certain boats” like so many other tech companies seem to do. Apple must remain focused on the consumer need, and if it has been filled elsewhere and cannot be provided at a good cost by Apple, they must stay away. As simple as it seems, Apple (or is it Steve Jobs?) seems to see when it is time to draw the line and discontinue support for irrelevant technologies. This first started with the iMac, when Apple released the new computer concept with only USB inputs, and no floppy drive, both of which were unheard of at the time. Today, almost every computer only allows USB or FireWire input, and have no floppy disk drives. Jobs’s abilities to see through needless, or incomplete products will be a true asset here. The risk is that if Apple falls for a business that it cannot sustain, investors may begin to sell the stock, and the hype which usually plays in their favor may turn against them. Apple not only needs the stock to perform well to fund its growth, but also to continue generating buzz about the company, and excitement and interest about its future.
At the same time, they cannot let every whim of shareholder wants and desires to run their company either. A strict balance between market wants and consumer needs must be maintained. This can also include such measures as ensuring that the stock price remains exciting as well as enticing. This can mean offering dividends and stock splits which can be good for current investors and which also help bring new investors to the table. It also means keeping shareholders interested by utilizing Mac World. However difficult it may prove, Mac World must continue to grow and top previous Mac World events. Without the anticipation and expectation of Mac World, the media will not be as friendly to freely promoting Apple product releases. The fact that Apple gets great publicity has helped sell products over the years. And just like anything else, if it fails to remain interesting, the publicity will falter.
People want and are attracted to status symbols. Apple captured this early on with their pricing methods using what is known as Prestige pricing. And they hardly ever run promotions or discounts. This does two things, it keeps many outside looking in and provides a ‘cool’ factor to those who own or use their products, but also generates significant revenues that the company can use to develop advanced products. This aspect of their business is a major part of their success. If they lose their ability to create Ferraris of computer devices, or to maintain their ability to capture Prestige price levels, they will begin to lose their ability to administratively control their market channels, thereby giving dangerous opportunities to their competitors.
One way to protect against competitors is to enter untapped markets, and Apple has plenty of markets in which they are hardly a player at all. To remain successful, Apple must also overcome the troubles in penetrating the enterprise market space. It is interesting to note that even in 1996, Gil Amelio knew that gaining enterprise market share was important, yet still to this day Apple remains largely a consumer tech company. “A key problem that Apple never solved was the company’s inability to break down doors of major corporations,” Gil explains. Perhaps a large reason for little penetration from Apple so far comes because of Larry Ellison’s position on the board.
Ellison runs Oracle, which is a company that does major business in the enterprise computing world. Apple will need to create ways in which they can reduce the amount of issues with using Apple devices in enterprises, especially as their population in the consumer market grows. If they don’t, they would simply be waiting for a major enterprise business, such as Google, to enter the consumer device world, which would be devastating to Apple since they would most likely be the first company to be substituted for when a new competing technology is created. (Amelio)
Many industries are still in need of major overhauls and innovations. The largest of which is the healthcare industry. Apple would be wise to gear up their machines and devices toward integrating all sorts of information of different types together, including health data. It seems that they are already headed in this direction with the iPad. Tablet computing devices could be useful for doctors and clinics who need patients to fill out paperless forms and who need to see up to date information on tests and procedures being performed. These duties could be performed using specialized Apps created by developers and marketed to doctors for use with Apple’s products. This ability to share information readily from business to client, whether in health care or another sector, has the potential of breaking centuries old barriers between product producers, shippers, and customers.
For these mobile platforms to work, one must have a good internet connection. Because Apple is currently exclusive to one carrier which is AT&T for most of its mobile devices, Apple must be sure AT&T is the best partner for them, especially in the wake of AT&T’s network issues, and the Android picking up large buckets of market share. This is especially true if Apple decides to enter the healthcare market. Internet connectivity will be a must when critical functions are being performed, such as analysis of patient history, updating medical records, checking for allergies, etc. In the event that Steve Jobs becomes ill or must step down and retire, Apple should have a plan in place to ensure that the next CEO doesn’t follow the same path that so many Apple CEO’s have, while destroying the value of the company in the process. Even at that point, it is questionable whether anyone could have the impact and success on Apple as a company that Steve Jobs has had.
Last of all, Apple must be prepared to establish itself as an online media outlet. iTunes has already been wildly successful, but Apple must ensure that the iTunes business remains relevant. They are still showing signs that they are on top of their business given the recent announcement to exclusively sell Beatles music on iTunes and online for the first time in history. Yet it remains to be seen how long downloading and owning content will continue to be the popular way of gaining access to media. As internet speeds and availability continue to increase, so does the advantage of remotely storing and accessing data, making the need for downloading a thing of the past.
Apple’s success to this point will likely give the company much needed momentum in the years ahead. If Apple is to remain a key figure in the tech industry and remain successful, they most assuredly must overcome the critics and naysayers who will always say “It can’t be done.” Apple must continue in the vein of Steve Jobs and proclaim “We think we’ve got the goods.” (Quittner, 2)

Annotated Bibliography


Allen, Danny, and Tom Spring. "Apple's Rivals Scramble to Make iPad Challengers." PC World 28.6 (2010): 10-12. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2010. This article discusses the coming competition to the iPad Amelio, Gil, and Simon William. On the firing line: my 500 days at Apple. 1st Edition. New York: Harperbusiness, 1998. Print. This book talks about the history of Apple, and the transition from CEO Gil Amelio to Steve Jobs in 1996. Bleicher, Paul. "The Evolution of the Desktop Computer." Applied Clinical Trials 17.6 (2008): 44-48. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2010. This article discusses the history of desktop computing and will provide a background to the growth and history of the computer industry as we know it. Connor, Deni. "Apple in the enterprise? Depends who you ask. (cover story)." Network World 24.22 (2007): 1-12. Computer Source. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2010. Discusses Apple’s Enterprise computing efforts in the last decade. Manjoo, Farhad. "Apple Nation. (cover story)." Fast Company 147 (2010): 68-112. Computer Source. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2010. Manjoo discusses the successes and challenges of Apple Pavlus, John. "WALLED GARDENS." Scientific American 303.3 (2010): 71. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2010. Pavlus discusses the “walled garden” approach to the iOS platform Apple uses, and what it’s advantages and disadvantages are. Quittner, Josh. "Apple's Vision Of the Future." Time 175.5 (2010): 34-35. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2010. Quittner discusses the new iPad product and the potential it holds for revolutionizing the print and publishing industries. Snell, Jason. "Inside the Intel iMac." Macworld 23.4 (2006): 64-67. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 6 Nov. 2010. The inside the Intel iMac article details the switch from IBM processors to Intel processors in Apple Computers. This was a major part in apple computers recent success over the past five years in making headway at increasing the market share of all of their computer platforms. Starr, Alexandra. "Apple CEO Steve Jobs: Reinventing Himself and Our Digital Lives." AARP Live & Learn. 18 Dec 2007: Print. An interview with Steve Jobs STURDEVANT, CAMERON. "Macs in a PC world." eWeek 27.5 (2010): 30. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2010. This article covers the rise in usage of Macs in the enterprise world, and how a shift in platforms is underway.


Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Follow-up: How To Short Sell The Oil Companies

In a previous article, I wrote about how we can collectively work against the oil companies to help improve gasoline prices.  (See the previous article before reading further if you haven't read it already.  Then come back to this article.) We should keep doing that, as now traders and firms like Goldman Sachs are seeing that demand might not be meeting with supply, and oil has been off its highs so far this week.  Keep it up America!

In full disclosure, I am not currently short on oil.  In fact, I am actually long DBO ETFs in one of my portfolios, and have no plans to change my position anytime soon.  I think energy long term is a good play.  But gasoline prices are too high, and unsustainable (in my view) at these levels, and I believe could impact the economy come summer time (like we saw in the perfect market storm of 2008).  I do have another interest in seeing fuel prices decrease, and that is I need to book some flights to Hawaii soon and would love to see some benefits in reduced airfare from lower aviation fuel prices.  Long shot, I know, but I can hope!

I also have seen other researchers write similar things about other commodities, such as food related goods.  Below is what Smartmoney.com had to say on the topic of stockpiling (which is what are doing in effect when we fill our tanks to the brim instead of just filling with a half tank more frequently).

Consider this example.  There are over an estimated 247 million registered vehicles in the US.  The average tank size is around 20 gallons.  That means, if we are keeping our tanks above half full, we are storing between 4.94 billion (at full) and 2.47 billion (at half full) gallons of gasoline, at our cost, not the oil companies' cost.  We are storing billions of gallons of gasoline for FREE, so that we can drive around town for a week without filling up (even though most cities and towns have a plethora of fueling stations along the routes we drive).  Imagine what would happen if we were storing a half tank or less of gasoline (less than or equal to 2.47 billion).  We would immediately stick almost 2.5 billion gallons of product back on the oil companies' "shelves", since their numbers are set to meet the demand at that rate of draw.  How's that for some perspective?

Smartmoney.com:
...

There's also an unintended consequence of stockpiling, says David Bell, a professor of marketing at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business: You'll actually end up using more of what you've stockpiled than you would otherwise. In theory, doubling the number of soda cases bought would result in a supply that lasts twice as long, but it's more likely that you'll go through it faster, or simply be less frugal about its use with extra on hand. You could even end up throwing out food that expires, rejecting out-of-fashion items, or simply forgetting about the cans of corn stashed behind the hats and mittens in the basement.
Still, buying before prices rise can be smart – in small doses. Most supermarket and drugstore items go on sale just once every 10 to 12 weeks, says Teri Gault, founder of The Grocery Game. If you're loyal to a certain brand, buying extra when you spot a sale is smarter than paying full price the following week when you're actually out. On fashion, retailers sneak in bigger price increases on trend items because consumers can't easily monitor cost like they do for wardrobe staples such as trousers and T-shirts, says Tennant. Many of those items are available now at end-of-season clearances, and can be picked up for a song. And avoiding hyped-up eBay ( EBAY: 29.98*, -0.46, -1.51% ) prices on discontinued items by stocking up is usually a sound strategy, too.
Ultimately, the decision may come down to cash flow. If charging six months worth of dry goods means paying extra interest charges on credit card debt, it's not worth the savings, says Randy Allen, an associate dean for The Johnson School at Cornell University.

Read more: Will Stockpiling Save You Money? - SmartMoney.com http://www.smartmoney.com/spending/budgeting/will-stockpiling-save-you-money-1298583519761/#ixzz1Gm8Ox5Y4


Additional notes: When gasoline is sitting in your tank, it is evaporating.  Why pay out of your pocket just to let more droplets of gasoline disappear on your dime.  Make the oil companies pay that expense themselves by buying less gasoline at each fuel-up, which forces them to store more gasoline and worry about their own storage tanks' evaporation rates.  While many articles show that the evaporation rates are pretty negligible (less than 1 gallon per year at 60 degrees Fahrenheit), I still need to do some more research on what the rates are like when it is over 90 degrees like most of America is during the summer months.  Also, when liquids slosh around, there is more evaporation.  There are also arguments about cars that have evaporation collection systems which reuse gasoline that might help mitigate your losses.  Additionally, E10 or higher Ethanol gasoline is said to evaporate even more due to the alcohol content.


However, even if you are not benefiting from less evaporation, you may stand to benefit from increased gas mileage by not hauling around so much liquid in your tank.  As the power of your engine increases (4 cyl, V6, V8) the benefits decrease: meaning you'll see better gas mileage for half tanks in a 4 cyl than you will in a V8.  But remember, these are just added benefits, so if you don't receive these benefits because your car is bigger or has cool vapor catching gizmos, it doesn't matter.  The bigger benefit is short selling the oil companies, over-supplying them with excess inventory, by not filling up a full tank when you go to the pump.  They will soon see that they have too much gasoline product on hand and reduce the price to get rid of it.


If interested, you can read more on efficiencies here:


http://www.creditinfocenter.com/wordpress/2008/07/24/increase-mileage-gas-tank-full-or-half-empty/

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Economics of Gasoline - How To Short Sell The Oil Companies

High gas prices are back.  It's time to review ways to save money on gas.

But I don't intend to talk about conserving gas through substitution to biking, running, or riding the bus to work.  The problem of high fuel prices goes far beyond that, and could easily cause setbacks in the US economic recovery - if there really is one.

Let's start with good ol' reliable supply and demand.  Prices are higher right now because the traders who buy oil on the commodities exchanges are saying with their pocket books that the supply of safe, reliable production of oil is heading lower relative to demand.  Whether we agree with their assessment is irrelevant.  But what is clear is that we need to shift the supply curve to the right to get prices to come down.  If the traders won't do that, how can we as consumers do it?

Before I go further, I'll point to some interesting info regarding the last time oil had a huge run.  In 2008 saw oil a peak price at  $145.29 on July 3.  Just 10 days later, President George W. Bush announced a repeal of the offshore drilling ban, and oil made a steep and steady decline (along with the economy) to well below $50 per barrel by December 2008.  I don't believe for a second that Bush intended to allow drilling - it was simply  a bluff, an ace in the back pocket.  Even if he did intend to allow drilling, it would have taken years to get production on line.  However, the mere chance that more supply could be coming on line in future years was enough to help the price come down; way down.

Remember, oil is traded in futures contracts.  The futures are trying to predict what the price of oil should be in the coming months.

So, again, how can we as consumers get the price of oil to fall?  Answer: we can use the properties of distribution models and futures trading against the oil companies, and force them to sell gas at lower prices.

Distribution models are everywhere, and these days they are run with high efficiency.  Imagine a tanker filling up with oil right now at a port in Alaska.  There is a port somewhere in Texas expecting that tanker to come to port in the near future.  At that port in Texas, there is a pipeline company expecting to transport the oil from the tanker, and eventually route it to an oil refinery somewhere in the mid-west.  That oil refinery is expecting the oil to come in so they can make gasoline and other products.  There is a distributor expecting to haul that gasoline to nearby stations, and stations that are expecting to sell the gasoline at a certain volume per week.  All of this is done with "just in time" precision to ensure that enough gasoline is on hand to the members down the chain at a time when it is needed.

That's where we come in.

Instead of filling our cars full of gasoline every time we stop to fill - and hauling it around while using it slowly, meanwhile letting the oil companies take our money for gasoline we will not use until sometime in the future - fill up with a half tank of gas, or better, a set dollar amount (that is at or below a half tank), keeping more of your money in your pocket, and paying less upfront for future consumption.  We will be placing "puts" on their future price of oil by paying less in advance for gasoline we'll burn in the future.

Our tank shorting will do two things immediately.  One, it will immediately increase the amount of gasoline inventory every station has on hand relative to their normal draw rates.  When the distribution company comes to fill the tanks for the station, they will not dump as much gasoline off their tanker trucks.  With less gasoline leaving the storage tanks of refineries, they will have to slow production (or pay money to someone else to store the excess gasoline).  Reduced production would mean less oil draw from their pipelines, which would mean the pipeline companies would have to store more offloaded oil from tankers (or pay someone else to store it).  Rather than do that, they offload less oil from the tanker.  The tanker sits in port longer now, since the offloading rate is slowed.  Meaning the tanker company now starts a dispute with the purchaser of the oil over who will pay the costs of the extended stay at port.  Meantime, another ship is already on its way to port with more oil.  That tanker arrives while the other tanker is still docked.  Now the tanker company has to pay to dock the second tanker, effectively "storing" the oil.

Two, rather than allow this backlog to happen and disrupt the supply chain, the oil companies will try to entice us back to the pump by reducing the price of gasoline in an attempt to ease the onslaught of higher inventories.   This action would effectively take some wind out of the sails of the futures prices of oil, which would further reduce the price of gasoline over time.

Let's get started America.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Gasoline Production Being Reduced By Refineries


This is not good news for those who have been watching the gasoline market. Refineries are lowering production of America's lifeblood - gasoline. Forget the credit crunch, this squeeze will have the same effects, or worse, as a slowed money supply. See the story below, and keep reading:

There are some things you can do. For instance, I learned that due to chemical reasons and physical laws such as vapors in liquids, temperature differences, and the effects that different pour rates can have in relation to this, if you "pour" or pump your gas slower, it will increase the amount of gasoline you get while decreasing the amount of vapors that end up in your tank. This significantly increases your gas mileage. I have tested it over the last 2 weeks and had spectacular results. My car is rated at 25 MPG city, and 30 MPG highway. I have been getting 36 MPG!
You can also use reverse supply tactics. Why put money in the oil company's bank accounts when you can keep it in yours. Just buy a half tank of gas when you fill up. If the entire country were to do this (basically ration themselves creating "game theory -like" results), the daily gasoline supplies and reserves would increase, almost overnight. Fill trucks would have to go out and fill stations much less. This would then cause a reaction from the gasoline companies, who have to pay to store large quantities of gasoline, to sell it at a cheaper rate to generate cash flow and revenues, and to get rid of increasing stockpiles of gasoline (retailers reverse supply or use reverse logistics all the time. What do you think happens to the products you return to the store? They are sold at a discount later. Filling a half tank of gas is like returning a half tank of gas at the same time). Secondary "discount" markets for gasoline would rise due to the fact that the supply chain would be broken at the endpoint - the pump - as less gasoline would be pumped daily (a half tank would be "returned"). Can you imagine the day when stations have a 15% off sale to get people to the pump? Then let's make it happen!
See the following for some basics on supply chains:
Also, knowing you will only have a half tank of gas before your next fill-up (the next time you will have to spend actual money) will also make you think twice about driving someplace. You can also do a "gas budget" where you pay attention to how many miles it takes to get somewhere. Then figure out the cost of the gasoline it took. This will help you realize the cost of your day to day activities, and help you budget your gasoline expenditures.
Ensure full inflation of your tires every time you fill. And don't use gas company credit cards. They make lots of money in interest each time you do.
Buy non-middle eastern oil. Nearly every domestic oil well has been uncapped recently due to the potential revenues that can be generated with oil over $100 a barrel. When I was in Texas 4 years ago, many farmers had oil wells that were capped off, awaiting better times for oil. This is not the case anymore. As a farmer, if you can pump just 10 barrels in a day, you'll add about $30,000 a month to your bottom line these days. So help support our country's oil supply by buying domestic oil. A quick google search will tell you who the domestic companies are.
Invest stocks in Natural Gas companies, and then buy a natural gas car. A nat gas car costs about $8 to fill which gets you about 350 miles. With oil as expensive as it is, Natural Gas demand is going up, and so are the stocks of the companies who produce it.
Open a business, and use your trips for business purposes to write of gasoline taxes.
Send this to your friends. I hope it helps!
Tijs

--
Tijs Limburg
Chairman and CTO of DMX - Digital Media eXceleron, Inc.
Get eXcited!
http://www.dmxed.com/

Blogs:
http://phystrings.blogspot.com/
http://getoutofthedark.blogspot.com/

The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.


--
Tijs Limburg
Chairman and CTO of DMX - Digital Media eXceleron, Inc.
Get eXcited!
www.dmxed.com

Blogs:
http://phystrings.blogspot.com/
http://getoutofthedark.blogspot.com/

The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.