Thursday, September 18, 2008

Bailouts - History Lesson

That's a good question, Eric. 

I'll try to explain it as best that I can and from what I have learned in my business studies.

The Federal Reserve is chartered by congress to under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.  That act was supported by a key Senator, then the Republican Senate leader, Nelson Aldrich.  He was first opposed to a Central bank (Alexander Hamilton was the first to propose a Central Bank over a hundred years before), but as he studied the central banks in Europe, he was convinced that this would be the answer to most of the problems the US currency system had faced previously; albeit on one condition.  That the bank be private, with the only government representation being on the Board of Governors, as the Board of Governors is appointed by the US President.  However, the President cannot fire a boardmember (only the board can do that with a vote), and the boardmembers are not beholden to anyone in the government, because they serve longer terms than those who appoint them.  They can act for themselves, just as a charter gives a corporate board of directors the ability to conduct business as the board sees fit.  Both charters are fundamentally similar.

Even the stocks of the Federal Reserve are owned by the banks operating within a region of the system, and not the government.  (There are 12 regions within the Fed system)  Each Federal Reserve Bank is independently incorporated and has a 9-member board of directors, 6 of which are nominated by the member banks and 3 which are nominated by the Board of Governors.

The purpose of the Fed is to provide adequate currency, prevent bank runs, to monitor banks, and to manage "paper" (bonds, loans, mortgages, etc.).  Its powers have expanded since being formed to balance interests of private banks and the government (which it can do because it is not 'government'), to provide financial services to deposit banks and the government, and to maintain and strengthen the US economy and financial system, among others.

The Fed also is the only organization, as chartered by congress, that can order Reserve Notes to be printed from the Treasury.  In that regard as well, the US currency is not subject only to the government, but the people's control.  The Federal Reserve Note, issued by Federal Reserve Banks replaced the once used United States Notes which were issued by the US Treasury. The government has to do much of it's financial transactions through the Fed's banking window.  Because of this, the value of the currency is based only on the credit of the government, and the combined assets of the US economy.

Coins, on the other hand, are direct issue from the government, because they are directly obliged to the US Treasury.

To answer your question "If all the "government" (President and Congress) can do is advise and request things of the Federal Reserve but their decisions are their own, what stops the Fed from running things as they see fit?", the short answer is that the Fed does in fact run things as they see fit, and many times have gone in the face of both the government and wall street.   In most cases, history has shown that the Fed's decision in those cases was probably one of the best ways to go about the problem. 

However, recently it seems that some of the Fed Governors have neglected their duties.  Here is a quote from their US Code on the Fed's responsibility in preventing asset bubbles (like the ones we have seen recently):

"
Each Federal reserve bank shall keep itself informed of the general character and amount of the loans and investments of its member banks with a view to ascertaining whether undue use is being made of bank credit for the speculative carrying of or trading in securities, real estate, or commodities, or for any other purpose inconsistent with the maintenance of sound credit conditions; and, in determining whether to grant or refuse advances, rediscounts, or other credit accommodations, the Federal reserve bank shall give consideration to such information. The chairman of the Federal reserve bank shall report to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System any such undue use of bank credit by any member bank, together with his recommendation. Whenever, in the judgment of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, any member bank is making such undue use of bank credit, the Board may, in its discretion, after reasonable notice and an opportunity for a hearing, suspend such bank from the use of the credit facilities of the Federal Reserve System"

Twice in the last 15 years, and under two Chairmen and two US Presidents we have seen bubbles in assets like the ones described in the US code.  Yet, it seems that the Fed has been reluctant to step in and make adjustments in the last decade.  I'm not sure what has happened since the enormous, and somewhat secret, failure of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, but it seems that the Fed has been very hesitant to stem in and take control - beyond adjusting interest rates.  Had the Fed not acted in bailing out LTC in 1998, a suprize economic collapse would have occurred, because of the unexpected breakdown in their trading algorithm would have caused worldwide losses at least in the hundreds of billions of dollars.  (As a side note, the study which led to the algorithm they used had won the Nobel Prize in economics a year earlier).  However, my opinion is that the Fed is now reluctant to step in because the LTC fiasco has made larger firms believe that a Fed bailout is inevitable if they fail, so they can now take on more risks, and the Fed doesn't want to appear like they are catering to that idea.

To be clear, taxpayers don't foot any of the Fed's bills such as bailouts until the full aftermath of the firm being bailed out has been accounted for.  Most of the time, those huge bailout numbers are not as large when they hit the Fed's balance sheet because the companies are broken apart while under Fed protection and either sold, such as the case with Bear Stearns being sold to JPMorganChase in a weekend by the Fed's backing.  Only when the losses of the company are so large that the liquidation or sale of company businesses and assets doesn't match up does the Fed debit money form it's tax-backed accounts.

That being said, I will answer the second part of your question.  Jim Cramer is a great example of how to get the Fed's, especially the Chairman's, attention that their policies are not in line with the market pressures.  Complain.  He complained to media, threw a fit (which is now infamous) on live TV, and taught people how to "trade against the Fed", so to speak.  Because the Fed is run by Capitalists, and not institutionalists and beaureaucrats, they monitor and take heed to market pressures.  If you don't like the Fed policy, bet against them.  Stockpile money, cause a credit crunch, stop consuming, stop trading or short sell stocks, bonds or mortgages which will drive down the prices (while potentially making you money in a bear market), decrease the value of the currency or start buying other currencies or commodities like gold, move your money from stocks to bonds, or across the seas to other markets, stop hireing at your business, etc.  All of these things will cause the Fed to rethink their tactics.  And as always, complain. 

To sum up the idea that the Central banks around the world listen to the mass of complaints, the Central Bank in Europe told the press yesterday that they had heard too much complaining.  They told the papers and the media that all of the complaints were based on fears that the media was purpetrating and creating, and asked that the media stop with the doomsday reports because people were getting overly scared about issues and speculations they shouldn't be so concerned about and that were not substantiated or true.

Hope that answers the question to some degree.

Tijs








On Wed, Sep 17, 2008 at 6:56 PM, Eric Limburg <dmx311@gmail.com> wrote:
Question:

You said,



"We also need to remember that the Fed is not technically an arm of the government.  They are a private institution that is not controlled by Congress or the President, but We the People.  If we have an issue with the way things are being run at the Fed, then we as a people need to step in and fix it."
If the Fed (or Federal Reserve/Central Bank) is a private, third party, institution not controlled by Congress or the President, how do We the People fix what they are doing? If all the "government" (President and Congress) can do is advise and request things of the Federal Reserve but their decisions are their own, what stops the Fed from running things as they see fit. I probably need an economics lesson, but it sure seems strange that our fiscal system is run by a third party, non-elected, committee. Who's responsible for all this madness. Everyone is blaming the government, but the ones making the decisions are independent of the government. But then we as tax payers are the one with the bill? Sounds like an insurance claim nightmare. Help me out here those of economic minds...


From: Tijs Limburg <tijis311@gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, September 17, 2008 1:04 PM
To: Limburg, Garth <Garth.Limburg@slcgov.com>; Eric Limburg <dmx311@gmail.com>; Nevin Limburg <Nevin.Limburg@wvc-ut.gov>; Brendon Charles <bcharles22@gmail.com>; Dupaix Steven <steve.dupaix@thomson.net>; Lizzie Dupaix <dyzylyzy@gmail.com>; Ronald Hess <rjoehess@gmail.com>
Subject: Bailouts - History Lesson


I agree with most of this article.  However, there is a slight flaw in Andrew's logic which I have pointed out to him.  The article would lead you to believe that Fed bailouts are something new.  In fact they are not.  Bailouts from the "Central Bank" could be argued to be the underlying premise of the Fed in the first place. 
Before the Fed was formed, the closest thing the US had to a central bank was J.P. Morgan bank.  Mr. Morgan used his extensive financial arm and prowess on more than one occasion to bail out both the govenrment in 1895, and to stop the panic of 1907, among others.  He even advocated the idea of a central bank, which Congress eventually followed.  So in essence, J.P. Morgan could be looked at as the first 'Fed Chairman', who bailed out failing systems long before.  Some have said Morgan advocated a central bank because he proved it was absolutely necessary in dire situations to have a central financial power that could step in at the right time and offer money, buy stocks, or create mergers.  They also think that Morgan was tired of having this responsibility upon himself, as he was trying to run a banking business, not a regulatory agency of the treasury. 
We also need to remember that the Fed is not technically an arm of the government.  They are a private institution that is not controlled by Congress or the President, but We the People.  If we have an issue with the way things are being run at the Fed, then we as a people need to step in and fix it. 
While I don't think that every large failing company should be bailed out, and I am in a bit of disagreeance with helping AIG stay up, I don't think the bailouts we have seen so far are that dissimilar to tactics Morgan used over a century ago to save the US financial system from crisis.
But the article is worth a read.  Hopefully our regoinal banking system is firm enough that any widespread effects to not find their way to Salt Lake as quickly.  Either way, keep an eye on the performance of the bank you go to.  We may see a lot of small banks go under.  In 1992, before the big turnaround we have seen in the last 15 years, 800 small or regoinal banks failed.  We may see the same thing again.
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2008/09/16/the-fed-is-not-our-sugardaddy.aspx?CommentPosted=true#commentmessage


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The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.



--
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Get eXcited!
www.dmxed.com

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The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

The New Economy

11:58 AM Brendon: where do you stand w taxing imports from china?
11:59 AM and why do people not want us drilling off shore?
12:00 PM me: Environmental reasons.
12:01 PM Brendon: and what about taxing imports from china?
12:03 PM me: It is an attempt to slow down the amount of imports from China. Import taxes (tarrifs) never work.
12:04 PM Brendon: why not?

40 minutes
12:45 PM me: If you tax imports from a country like China, they will tax imports on their side from the US, and also it usually increases prices domestically, which means people spend less, which hampers the economy.
12:46 PM Brendon: ahhh... so wise
12:48 PM me: The way out of situations like the one we are in (flat wages, increasing inflation, decreasing dollar) is to create a new type of economy.
12:49 PM Hamilton was a genius when he proposed that we not only be Agriculturalists, but that we also become Manufacturers.
  That set us up for the Industrial Age
  Which is the source of much of our country's wealth so far
 Brendon: i'm going to read to thomason what you just wrote
12:50 PM me: Now that other countries have more efficient Manufacturing, they can compete on the same level as us, which hurts our economic status.
12:51 PM So, we need to introduce a new economy that we can dominate once again
 Brendon: so what do you propose?
12:54 PM me: 2 things. We need to let the Asian countries make the cheap stuff and bulk items. They are better at it. We need to admit that. However, we are (or have the potential to be) really good at making things that are feature packed and expensive
  When you can make a product that is feature packed and expensive, you can control the price. Especially if it is proprietary. Apple and Blackberry products are a perfect example
12:55 PM Everybody wants them no matter the cost
 Brendon: oh ok
12:57 PM me: But the 'new economy' i believe will be based on information and new energy. Creating, harboring, and destroying it. We haven't yet scratched the surface of both of these.
12:59 PM Once we get both to levels that are beyond today's capacity, all kinds of new things will come about. With better energy sources and types, for example, faster transporation will become reality
1:00 PM But, for each one, the infrastructure is seriously lacking which is why the potential of both have been hampered.
1:01 PM (sorry, that's a lot of info)
1:04 PM Interestingly, new advents in energy use an sources is always the precursor to the next economy. With agriculture, it had to be figured out how to irrigate and how best to use the daylight to gro plants.
1:05 PM With industrialization, it was how to harness the power of rivers at first, then steam power, then chemical reactins to produce electricity.

5 minutes
1:11 PM Brendon: so what do we need to do w our infrastructure

9 minutes
1:20 PM me: Build high capacity fiber and wireless networks that are available everywhere. Begin building roads and highways with new technologies, techniques, and materials that are longer lasting, more durable, and cost effective. Create new ways of transporting electrical energy and upgrading electrical grids with more durable equipment. Build more pipelines for energy, water, and other resources to make distribution better. Build high speed rail lines - for both freight and passengers. Build intercountry highways for transportation of goods. And add infrastructure that will allow for energy carriers such as hydrogen to be distributed more efficiently.



--
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The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Biodiesel In Utah - Biodiesel / Veggie Oil in Deseret News Called "Illegal"

All. This is a perfect example of the crappy journalism we put up with in this state. My dad and I just discussed this issue on Sunday with regard to their reporting on UTA and other projects that have no depth, very little factual content as they rely too much on heresay from so called 'experts' because they can't actually research the material themselves. Which is pretty hilarious when you think about it because a few hours on the internet can potentially give you more info than you could publish in a book! Especially when it comes to laws. No wonder Utahn's have no idea what is occurring around them. It makes me wonder how much mis-information I have received over the years from reading the paper.
The Deseret News recently ran a story on Biodiesel (an alternative fuel for which I happen to be a huge advocate and I am also a member of the Utah Biodiesel Co-op) and completely made a mess of it. (story below) A while back I had the opportunity to meet Graydon Blair whom they interviewed for the story. He is an extremely knowledgeable person and had a pretty impressive operation for 'homebrewing' his own Biodiesel. The machine made it so simple that it looked almost as easy as doing the laundry.
However, I read the article and it seemed that from what I knew and had researched about the fuel myself (and Eric can attest to this as he met Graydon with me), as well as what I have learned through email messages from other members of the bio co-op such as Graydon himself, that the paper was completely off and was casting biodiesel as a completely illegal fuel. The article made me mad because there were so many errors and so much mis-information about the kind of people involved in bio- production. You can't tell me that the article doesn't cast every person who makes their own fuel as a tax-evading criminal, or some tinkering-renegade-liberal-hippie. Actually, they are mostly highly-educated and savvy people, including scientists, engineers, and businessmen. As well, biodiesel is not really some 'underground' operation, as there are very large, national associations that have paid large sums of money for all kinds of biodiesel fuel to be EPA certified.
Read what Graydon had to say about his own interview. He sent this to all of the Utah Biodiesel Co-op members in a thread regarding the article published over the weekend. This is why more and more I am switching to periodicals and online news services (such as press releases and rss feeds directly from the institution involved) to get my news. Something is amiss in our current journalism schools - they all think that writing for a paper is the same as writing for a blog or something. Too much opinion, not enough facts! Someone ought to start a research news paper that actually does research and is filled with relevant information. Something like what that Phil Steele guy has done with Sports magazines.



On Aug 18, 2008, at 10:55 PM, Utah Biodiesel Supply wrote:

Yep. And it pissed me off royally too because she took what I said & twisted my words.
I explained with extreme explicitness too and she STILL managed to screwed it up!

Somehow that chick had it in her brain that running Biodiesel was against the Clean Air Act & nothing I could say would change what she thought.

I even clarified the differences but no, she STILL had to go & twist it up.

Just for the record....
If a fuel has passed the Health & Human Testing that the EPA requires for a fuel, then it technically doesn't violate the act.
Biodiesel HAS passed the EPA. The National Biodiesel Board PAID for this to be done (millions of dollars too!)

If someone uses Biodiesel in a vehicle, it DOES NOT violate the Clean Air Act (contrary to what was published).
I explained that to her over & over but she still didn't get it.

Also, when she asked me about taxes & the EPA, she misquoted me.
I told her that while the EPA isn't an issue, possibly running fuel without paying road taxes would be the thing that could catch up to a person first.

She misrepresented my quote and made it sound like you'd be violating the EPA AND owe taxes but that the IRS would be the one to get you first.

I also told her that to SELL the fuel without it passing ASTM is against the EPA rules, but somehow she had it in her head that even if you used it, it'd be against the law.
I clarified that over and over with her but she still seems to have it in her mind that if you make it & burn it you're violating the EPA clean air act.

I loved how she handily lumped SVO and Biodiesel into the same thing too....damn reporters!

Man, I'm so damn mad at her right now! That's the last interview I'll ever do for the Deseret News in relation to Biodiesel.

Damn paper!
-Graydon
Utah Biodiesel Supply
Offering Innovative Ways To
Produce, Promote, And Use Biodiesel
Phone 801-820-5753 Fax 866-872-8505
Email info@utahbio.com
Main Site http://www.utahbio.com/
Bumper Stickers www.cafepress.com/utahbdsupply




Guys,
We had a somewhat unfortunate news article make it on the front page of the D-News today. I would stress in the future that any local biodiesel producers please use extreme caution when speaking with the news media about any possible "illegality" and tax issues related to biodiesel production and vegetable oil use. I am not asking anyone to lie but please use caution in implicating yourself and others in activities that could be termed as illegal whether they are or are not. The article unfortunately did no one related to either any justice.
It has also been picked up by AP, KUTV 2, and KSL on their web sites. Again if we could please use caution in the future.
Thanks,
Andre




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Monday, July 14, 2008

Bush Places Call On Oil Bets

All,
 
Looks like I'm not the only one who believes that just mentioning and supporting the idea of offshore drilling would change the sentiment of futures traders in Oil.  This is a quote from an article (link below) on Bloomberg.com:
 
``The prospect of considerable supply even though it may take some time to bring on line changes decisions of energy buyers, hedgers and investors,'' said William Whitsitt, president of the American Exploration and Production Council, which represents oil and gas companies. ``There is no doubt in my mind that this can have a positive effect for consumers.''
 
But listen to what the Dems are saying.  No wonder they are usually not the best entrepreneurs or business leaders:
 
 Democrats have blocked congressional efforts to lift the ban, arguing that Republican estimates that there are some 86 billion barrels available are overstated and  doing so would have no short-term effect.

Did they miss the class "Supply and Demand in Futures 101"?  The price of oil is traded in futures which are based on the future supply to the oil reserves.  If the future has the potential to have more oil on the market -whether or not it is next month or 3 years from now - the futures markets will take note and trade accordingly.
 
This is a bold and stalwart political move for Bush, as now it is up to Congress (and the Dems more especially) to show their true colors of who they represent.  The People have been asking for drilling relief for some time now.  It will be interesting to see what happens.
 
As a side note, oil futures are down today.  I wonder why?...
 

--
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The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Financial Black Friday - Mortgage Finance Sector Crashes

Well, some have been predicting a crash in the markets for some time, and while it is not a broad based crash (yet), the plunge in the Financial sector that has occurred this week, more especially today, makes this a Black Friday in my opinion.
 
Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, the to goliath mortgage finance companies that are backed by the government, crashed 39% and 45% respectively today, bringing the financial markets to their knees and bringing the Dow to its lowest intraday point so far in 2 years - below 11,000 points.
 
And it's only July.
 
In some ways I'm nervous to see what happens in September and October, which are known to be stormy to downright terrible months for the markets even in stellar years.  The economy is shaping up to be a "perfect storm" that I don't think either Presidential Candidate has any qualifications to resolve.  We could be in for quite a ride, and unfortunately, a lot of losses.
 
Here are some articles that should be a wakeup call.  Now is a good time to save money (in cash accounts - not securities), and to move your current stock investments into dividend yielding stocks and bonds.
 
I'm not sure what this means for the housing market as a whole, or what it means for people who want to get into a home, but I wouldn't get into a mortgage right now without qualifying for FHA, which was made during the depression years to get people into homes, so an FHA insured loan should be able to ride out any stormyness.
 
 
 

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The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.


Friday, June 27, 2008

Oil Up Again - Great Oil Story in USA Today

All,
 
Here is a very thourough article on Oil and speculation as an investment tool.  We have discussed this issue before, and the USA Today hits it on the head.  The article should be required reading at the gas pump to educate Americans on what would really help ease the pressure on the Oil markets, and what speculators really do.  Speculation is hardly ever as evil as it sounds.  Read through to the end, and you will see the solution we have talked about and that I support big time: Change the margin requirement for investing in futures.  It works for small stocks and option calls, it will work for futures.
 

U.S.News & World Report
6 Myths About Oil Speculators
Friday June 27, 10:44 am ET
By Rick Newman

So now we know who's really responsible for $4 gas. Finger-pointers from Washington, the International Monetary Fund, and even Saudi Arabia no longer seem to buy the idea that the demand for oil around the world is simply growing faster than the supply, driving prices to record highs close to $140 per barrel. There must be a more nefarious reason, it seems. So now entering this drama is a villain everybody can hate: The Evil Speculator.

ADVERTISEMENT
At recent congressional hearings, politicians and energy experts argued that speculators have artificially added $30 or more to the cost of a barrel of oil, turned oil trading into a global poker game, and doubled the price of gasoline practically overnight.

But who are these party crashers? Where did they come from? How are they doing this? And who can stop them? We'd all like to see a superhero swoop in and smite the speculators, saving Gotham from the peril of $4 gas. The only problem is, speculators aren't quite the bogeymen that politicians want us to think--and they even play an important role in the oil markets and the global economy. Some major misconceptions:

Speculators are inherently bad for the economy. There's no doubt that speculators are out to make money, by buying a commodity like oil (or gold, or real estate) when they think the price is likely to rise and they'll be able to sell for a profit. But they also help sustain the market for buyers and sellers and provide ways for individuals and businesses to offset risks.

Many companies, for instance, want to lock in the price they're going to pay down the road for petroleum products and other supplies they need to run their businesses. So they make agreements with suppliers on a price they'll pay next year, or the year after, when they actually take possession of the oil. Buying and selling such "futures contracts" makes these companies speculators by definition, since they're placing a bet on the future price of oil.

Companies doing this kind of hedging include gasoline refiners, airlines, shipping companies, and others that spend a lot on fuel or petroleum. Often they use investment banks or other intermediaries to arrange the deals. They might be gambling, but this kind of speculation actually helps companies run their businesses more smoothly, and if they guess right on future prices, it may give them a competitive advantage against other companies that don't plan as prudently.

There's a Speculator Star Chamber somewhere. Global markets are so abstruse to ordinary folks that it's easy to imagine a cabal of evil geniuses pulling the levers from some fortified complex in London or Geneva. But that's the Hollywood version. "The market is so competitive that that's nonsense," says Bob Hodrick, a finance professor at Columbia Business School. "There's no way for everyone to communicate and get together and say, 'We're going to buy and drive the price up.' " There are thousands of investors around the world placing bets every day on whether oil prices will go up or down--and they have no way of knowing who their fellow speculators are. All they know is the current price, shown on a computer monitor, plus whatever their own research tells them.

Speculators are super-rich market manipulators. Certainly some are super-rich, including investors in sovereign wealth funds from Middle Eastern and Asian nations. But new data show that many oil speculators these days may be big pension and index funds that invest on behalf of ordinary working Americans. These huge investment funds have typically invested in equities, but in recent years they've been adding commodities--including oil--to their portfolios as a way to diversify.

Even if the commodity portion of these portfolios is just 3 or 4 percent, that can trigger big swings in the oil markets, where most investors up till now have been smaller players. "There's no malice or manipulation here," says Ed Krapels, an analyst with the research firm Energy Security Analysis. But the entry of such big institutional investors into the oil market could definitely contribute to rising prices, especially since they tend to buy and hold securities like futures contracts, instead of quickly selling--which contributes to scarcity and rising prices.

The government tracks speculators and knows who they are. Part of the reason nobody's really sure what effect speculators have on the oil markets is a lack of information. Exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange track the activities of their members, but even then, a trader could be a speculator one day, buying oil or futures contracts, and a seller the next day: Nobody checks a "speculator" box when making a trade.

A recent study by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates commodities markets, found a big increase in the percentage of speculators buying oil contracts for investment purposes--"paper barrels"--instead of buying because they need the oil. But oil markets are less regulated than markets for stocks or bonds, and there's still a lot that's unknown. Congress has ordered more studies, with new regulation likely as well.

Speculators are creating a huge bubble in oil. We've just seen a bubble pop in the housing market, with home values now plummeting. And before that, the tech bubble inflated, then burst. But the run-up in oil prices is probably different. The housing boom was generated by cheap and, in some cases, fraudulent mortgages, not by a huge increase in the number of people who needed housing. The tech boom was similar to old-fashioned manias, where investors raced in hoping to cash in on a gold rush and bid the price of technology shares way above their inherent value.

But in the oil markets, there is in fact growing demand because of strong Asian economies. And supply is fairly fixed for now, since adding more oil to the market means finding new sources and spending billions to extract it, not just opening a spigot a little wider. "There are pretty strong fundamentals behind this run-up," says Sarah Emerson, another analyst at Energy Security Analysis. Speculators may be pushing oil prices somewhat higher than they would otherwise be--but a bust similar to housing or tech stocks seems unlikely.

Speculators should be banned. Few, if any, economists or energy analysts advocate this. In fact, some fairly modest regulatory changes could bring greater transparency to oil markets and force them to operate more like stock and bond markets. Buying a contract for oil futures, for instance, typically requires the buyer to put down less than 10 percent of the value of the contract; the rest can be borrowed. That allows buyers to roll up big stakes with relatively little cash. Raising the "margin requirement" to 50 percent, the usual threshold for stocks, would cool demand for oil futures, while still keeping the speculators in business. And maybe get the witch hunters off their case.

Tijs

 

On 6/11/08, Tijs Limburg <tijis311@gmail.com> wrote:
Well, it looks like Cramer agrees with Bill O'Rielly that the margin for trading in oil and commodities is too low.  I happen to agree.  Any time you can buy on cheap margins, made especially cheap in the last 6 months with low interest rates, the low margin markets will move up very fast.  I think these investors ought to be required to supply 80% to 90% of the capital up front, and only buy 10% to 20% on margin.
 
Changing the margin rates would deflate all of these markets overnight.  High margin expectations works very well at controlling the volatile "less-than-ten-dollar" stocks from going completely haywire, because you cannot buy them on margin without supplying a large percentage of capital up front.
 
Time for a market change.  I think that 10 years ago, we didn't have to worry about putting in these types of restrictions in commodities, because hardly any small or individual players were in them.  Now that they are all computerized and easy to access by anyone with a discount brokerage account, the system has been broken.
 
In the late 80's and early 90's, "curbs" were introduced into the markets because computerized trading led to the stock market crash of '87.  Looks to me like computers, easy "democratized" access, and large money movement from institutional traders who lost billions in the financial industry recently, have combined to form a perfect storm for a broken commodities market. 

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: donotreply@thestreet.com <donotreply@thestreet.com>
Date: Jun 11, 2008 8:12 AM
Subject: Article from TheStreet.com : Cramer: The Oil Market Is Broken
To: tijis311@gmail.com

 
TheStreet.com
Message from tijis2001@yahool.com:
Hi, I thought you would be interested in this article from TheStreet.com
Transportation
Jim Cramer
06/10/08 - 05:23 PM EDT

This column was first published on RealMoney at 2:04 p.m., June 10, 2008. For more commentary on today's action from the RealMoney writers, click here for a free trial.

Every market's so thin here and so easily pushed around by derivatives and aggressive buying and selling that it's hard to trust any prices. Does anyone believe that some large buyer of oil paid up $10 the other day? Does anyone think that a major airline or a energy user came in and said, "Buy 200,000 barrels of oil with a $10 limit"?

Read This Article

 
Visit TheStreet for more great features

TheStreet Premium Services

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Get eXcited!
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The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Fwd: Your Letter to the Editor Ran Today



Deseret News

Concrete better than asphalt

Published: June 24, 2008

UDOT recently sent me a notice stating that they would be repaving the Van Winkle Expressway by my house in asphalt. Why continue to pave in asphalt when oil is at record highs? Asphalt is oil based, lasts three to four times less than concrete and takes five times more fuel per mile to lay.

Concrete is less prone to potholes, has a new lower cost relative to asphalt, is not subject to the volatile oil market and will decrease the pollution created by the machinery needed for paving.

We are setting precedent with new bridge installation techniques, let's set the trend for the next decade in road paving and be a greener state at the same time.

Tijs Limburg

Murray

© 2008 Deseret News Publishing Company | All rights reserved

 



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Thursday, June 19, 2008

Re: FW: MCCAIN SCORES WITH OFFSHORE DRILLING PROPOSAL

All,
 
The Greatest Generation of military officials got it right in WWII when they decided to make a fake army commanded by Patton that fooled the Germans into thinking the Normandy Invasions would happen at Calais.  By the time the Nazi tank commander General Rommel got word that his panzer division was in the wrong place to thwart any invasion, it was too late, and the rest is history.  The 3rd Army swept across France, pounded through the "Bulge", and liberated Europe by marching into Berlin.
 
Morris is right in his opinion that the energy situation is like a Pearl Harbor.  The problem has been brewing for decades, and is now reaching destructive levels.
 
In this situation, I find it funny that the Dems are showing their lack of economic, business, and strategic - even diplomatic prowess on this issue by rejecting McCain's and Bush's bid to promote more offshore drilling.
 
As I see it, the way to beat the market in commodities (short of instituting new margin regulations on the commodities exchanges which I support, but that is a different matter) is by playing the short game that works so well in driving down prices in every bid-ask type of market.
 
First, a little lesson in shorting stocks or real estate.  The way it works is that you "loan" the property to the person who is going to buy it, hoping that the person who buys will end up selling it back to you at a lower price.  You therefore make money on the spread between the higher short-sale price and the lower buy-to-cover price when the property is returned to you.  Keep in mind that the fundamental reason a stock or property declines in value is because an increase of stock or similar property enters the market.  Once the excess property enters the market and the price is lowered, you cover or "close" your trade at a lower price.  It is a very effective tool in keeping prices in check and putting pressure on them, keeping them from rising too fast.
 
Just as Dick Morris states in his article, one of the biggest factors in driving up the price other than hundreds of billions of dollars added to the commodities markets in recent years is Saudi Arabia's (and OPEC as a whole) lowered production levels.  Production is at a 3% decline rate per year since 2005 in those countries. 
 
So the question is how would you convince the OPEC nations to step up production in a short (inverse) market? 
 
The answer is to threaten increase in domestic production.  It is like a bluff in betting when you are sure you have the winning hand.  Since the market is ripe for shorting (good short markets are created as prices rise continually out of step with fundamentals), the US would have the winning hand because we are one of the biggest consumers of the product.  By threatening an increase in production, the OPEC nations would be forced to either lower prices to stave off any domestic production increases, or to "call our bluff" and wait and see if we would really start drilling.
 
The OPEC nations would surely not call our bet (The US would surely start drilling if forced to by high prices), and would want to keep our business by lowering prices.
 
So, why don't the Dems play along and why don't our government officials meet in closed committee meetings and decide together that they would never really start drilling unless the bluff was called, and then announce that they have unilaterally decided to start exploration and drilling?  Imagine the economic turnaround in lower energy prices and increases in jobs (including jobs to man oil rigs) that would create!
 
See how that is like a short-sale?  Either way, we will end up buying the oil at a lower cost than it is now, either because OPEC increases the amount of oil to market, or because we do it ourselves.
 
Tijs


 


MCCAIN SCORES WITH OFFSHORE DRILLING PROPOSAL

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on FOXNews.com on June 18, 2008.

Printer-Friendly Version
<http://pr1.netatlantic.com/t/6589052/30072428/591820/0/>

John McCain has drawn first blood in the political debate following
Barack Obama's victory in the primaries. His call yesterday for offshore
oil drilling - and Bush's decision to press the issue in Congress - puts
the Democrats in the position of advocating the wear-your-sweater
policies that made Jimmy Carter unpopular.

With gas prices nearing $5, all of the previous shibboleths need to be
discarded. Where once voters in swing states like Florida opposed
offshore drilling, the high gas prices are prompting them to reconsider.
McCain's argument that even hurricane Katrina did not cause any oil
spills from the offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico certainly will go
far to allay the fears of the average voter.


Obama Or McCain? Pick One!
<http://pr1.netatlantic.com/t/6589052/30072428/591821/0/>        For
decades, Americans have dragged their feet when it comes to switching
their cars, leaving their SUVs at home, and backing alternative energy
development and new oil drilling. But the recent shock of a massive
surge in oil and gasoline prices has awakened the nation from its
complaisance. The soaring prices are the equivalent of Pearl Harbor in
jolting us out of our trance when it comes to energy.

Suddenly, everything is on the table. Offshore drilling, Alaska
drilling, nuclear power, wind, solar, flex-fuel cars, plug-in cars are
all increasingly attractive options and John McCain seems alive to the
need to go there while Obama is strangely passive. During the Democratic
primary, he opposed a gas tax holiday and continues to be against
offshore and Alaska drilling and squishy on nuclear power. That leaves
turning down your thermostat and walking to work as the Democratic
policies.


McCain has also been ratcheting up his attacks on oil speculators. With
the total value of trades in oil futures soaring from $13 billion in
2003 to $260 billion today, it is increasingly clear that it is not the
supply and demand for oil which is, alone, driving up the price, but it
is the supply and demand for oil futures which is stoking the upward
movement.

The Saudis have made a fatal mistake in not forcing down the price of
oil. We could have gone for decades as their hostage, letting their
control over our oil supplies choke us while enriching them. But they
got greedy and let the price skyrocket. The sudden shock which has sent
America reeling is just the stimulus we need for a massive movement away
from imported oil and toward new types of cars.

The political will for major change in our energy policy is now here and
those, like Obama, who don't get it need to rethink their positions. To
quote FDR, "this great nation calls for action and action now" on the
energy issue. What has been a back-burner problem now has moved onto
center stage and McCain has put himself in the forefront.

The Democratic ambivalence stems from liberal concerns about climate
change. The Party basically doesn't believe in carbon based energy and,
therefore, opposes oil exploration. That's why Obama pushes the windfall
profits tax on oil companies - a step that tells them "you drill, you
find oil, and we'll take away your profits." But Americans have their
priorities in order: more oil, more drilling AND alternative energy
sources, flex-fuel cars, plug in vehicles and nuclear power.

With his willingness to respond to the gas price crisis with bold
measures, McCain shows himself to be a pragmatist while Obama comes off
as an ideologue to puts climate change ahead of making it possible for
the average American to get to work.

Of course, the high price of gas makes it inevitable that the US will
lead the world in fighting climate change. With $5 gas, Americans will
switch en masse to cars that burn less gasoline. Already we have cut our
oil consumption by 500,000 barrels a day in the past year (about a 3%
cut). The move away from oil will be exponential from here on out,
dooming radical Islam and reversing climate change at the same time. But
while we are getting new cars, we need more oil and McCain has flanked
Obama on this issue. Big time.

Go to DickMorris.com
<http://pr1.netatlantic.com/t/6589052/30072428/588352/0/>  to read all
of Dick's columns!


McCain Or Obama? Vote Here!
<http://pr1.netatlantic.com/t/6589052/30072428/591821/0/>

Tim Russert's Heart Attack, What You Must Know!
<http://pr1.netatlantic.com/t/6589052/30072428/591822/0/>

Special: Terror Chatter High, Protect Your Family!
<http://pr1.netatlantic.com/t/6589052/30072428/591823/0/>

________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________

PLEASE FORWARD THIS E-MAIL TO FRIENDS AND FAMILY AND TELL THEM THEY CAN
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The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Jim Cramer: The Oil Market Is Broken

Well, it looks like Cramer agrees with Bill O'Rielly that the margin for trading in oil and commodities is too low.  I happen to agree.  Any time you can buy on cheap margins, made especially cheap in the last 6 months with low interest rates, the low margin markets will move up very fast.  I think these investors ought to be required to supply 80% to 90% of the capital up front, and only buy 10% to 20% on margin.
 
Changing the margin rates would deflate all of these markets overnight.  High margin expectations works very well at controlling the volatile "less-than-ten-dollar" stocks from going completely haywire, because you cannot buy them on margin without supplying a large percentage of capital up front.
 
Time for a market change.  I think that 10 years ago, we didn't have to worry about putting in these types of restrictions in commodities, because hardly any small or individual players were in them.  Now that they are all computerized and easy to access by anyone with a discount brokerage account, the system has been broken.
 
In the late 80's and early 90's, "curbs" were introduced into the markets because computerized trading led to the stock market crash of '87.  Looks to me like computers, easy "democratized" access, and large money movement from institutional traders who lost billions in the financial industry recently, have combined to form a perfect storm for a broken commodities market. 

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: donotreply@thestreet.com <donotreply@thestreet.com>
Date: Jun 11, 2008 8:12 AM
Subject: Article from TheStreet.com : Cramer: The Oil Market Is Broken
To: tijis311@gmail.com

 
TheStreet.com
Message from tijis2001@yahool.com:
Hi, I thought you would be interested in this article from TheStreet.com
Transportation
Jim Cramer
06/10/08 - 05:23 PM EDT

This column was first published on RealMoney at 2:04 p.m., June 10, 2008. For more commentary on today's action from the RealMoney writers, click here for a free trial.

Every market's so thin here and so easily pushed around by derivatives and aggressive buying and selling that it's hard to trust any prices. Does anyone believe that some large buyer of oil paid up $10 the other day? Does anyone think that a major airline or a energy user came in and said, "Buy 200,000 barrels of oil with a $10 limit"?

Read This Article

 
Visit TheStreet for more great features

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From the action-oriented investing ideas of Action Alerts PLUS by Jim Cramer to the expert technical trading strategies of Helene Meisler's Top Stocks, TheStreet.com offers a range of premium services to help boost your portfolio's performance. View now.

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Cover all your investing bases. This popular premium service gives you access to Action Alerts PLUS, Stocks Under $10, RealMoney, Value Investor and Earnings Calls — all in 1 easy-to-use interface at 1 deeply-discounted price. Learn more.

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Chairman and CTO of DMX - Digital Media eXceleron, Inc.
Get eXcited!
www.dmxed.com

Blogs:
http://phystrings.blogspot.com/
http://getoutofthedark.blogspot.com/

The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Gasoline Production Being Reduced By Refineries


This is not good news for those who have been watching the gasoline market. Refineries are lowering production of America's lifeblood - gasoline. Forget the credit crunch, this squeeze will have the same effects, or worse, as a slowed money supply. See the story below, and keep reading:

There are some things you can do. For instance, I learned that due to chemical reasons and physical laws such as vapors in liquids, temperature differences, and the effects that different pour rates can have in relation to this, if you "pour" or pump your gas slower, it will increase the amount of gasoline you get while decreasing the amount of vapors that end up in your tank. This significantly increases your gas mileage. I have tested it over the last 2 weeks and had spectacular results. My car is rated at 25 MPG city, and 30 MPG highway. I have been getting 36 MPG!
You can also use reverse supply tactics. Why put money in the oil company's bank accounts when you can keep it in yours. Just buy a half tank of gas when you fill up. If the entire country were to do this (basically ration themselves creating "game theory -like" results), the daily gasoline supplies and reserves would increase, almost overnight. Fill trucks would have to go out and fill stations much less. This would then cause a reaction from the gasoline companies, who have to pay to store large quantities of gasoline, to sell it at a cheaper rate to generate cash flow and revenues, and to get rid of increasing stockpiles of gasoline (retailers reverse supply or use reverse logistics all the time. What do you think happens to the products you return to the store? They are sold at a discount later. Filling a half tank of gas is like returning a half tank of gas at the same time). Secondary "discount" markets for gasoline would rise due to the fact that the supply chain would be broken at the endpoint - the pump - as less gasoline would be pumped daily (a half tank would be "returned"). Can you imagine the day when stations have a 15% off sale to get people to the pump? Then let's make it happen!
See the following for some basics on supply chains:
Also, knowing you will only have a half tank of gas before your next fill-up (the next time you will have to spend actual money) will also make you think twice about driving someplace. You can also do a "gas budget" where you pay attention to how many miles it takes to get somewhere. Then figure out the cost of the gasoline it took. This will help you realize the cost of your day to day activities, and help you budget your gasoline expenditures.
Ensure full inflation of your tires every time you fill. And don't use gas company credit cards. They make lots of money in interest each time you do.
Buy non-middle eastern oil. Nearly every domestic oil well has been uncapped recently due to the potential revenues that can be generated with oil over $100 a barrel. When I was in Texas 4 years ago, many farmers had oil wells that were capped off, awaiting better times for oil. This is not the case anymore. As a farmer, if you can pump just 10 barrels in a day, you'll add about $30,000 a month to your bottom line these days. So help support our country's oil supply by buying domestic oil. A quick google search will tell you who the domestic companies are.
Invest stocks in Natural Gas companies, and then buy a natural gas car. A nat gas car costs about $8 to fill which gets you about 350 miles. With oil as expensive as it is, Natural Gas demand is going up, and so are the stocks of the companies who produce it.
Open a business, and use your trips for business purposes to write of gasoline taxes.
Send this to your friends. I hope it helps!
Tijs

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Get eXcited!
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The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.


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Tijs Limburg
Chairman and CTO of DMX - Digital Media eXceleron, Inc.
Get eXcited!
www.dmxed.com

Blogs:
http://phystrings.blogspot.com/
http://getoutofthedark.blogspot.com/

The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.

Friday, March 14, 2008

McCain and Romney Teams Joining Forces?

All,
 
This press release says that Meg Whitman will be joining McCain's team as National Co-Chairperson.  Is this the lead-in to a McCain - Romney ticket?

--
Tijs Limburg
Chairman and CTO of DMX - Digital Media eXceleron, Inc.
Get eXcited!
www.dmxed.com

Blogs:
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http://getoutofthedark.blogspot.com/

The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Re: Huckabee and McCain??

Here is what I would like to see happen:

Romney winning Michigan, because Michigan is not a "retail politics" state and takes Airwave, print, and mail media to win. 

Romney performing at least strongly in SC, and letting McCain and Huckberry get in a fight.  So far the only fighting we have seen has involved Mitt as one of the parties.

Romney winning Nevada.  I think Nevada will be key for Romney having a chance to get California's vote on Super Tuesday.  Cali has 173 delegates, and is winner takes all.

Michigan has 30 proportional delegates (after the RNC Penalty) and Nevada has 38 proportional delegates (no penalty as Nevada is a Caucus.  If Romney gets 40% in each state, he would come out of them with about 30 or so delegates, more than is even possible in SC, which is 24 proportional.

Romney winning Florida, beating Giuli, which will help propel his campaign in Texas and New York.  Florida has 57 delegates, and it is winner takes all.  Texas and New York are both winner takes all.

You can pretty well guarantee two states, Utah which has 38 delegates with winner takes all, and Idaho with 32 proportional delegates.  And I think Colorado Montana would fall in line as well.  Colorado is a Caucus with 46 delegates, and Montana gets 25 with an advisory primary.

Tijs

On Jan 10, 2008 5:58 PM, Nevin Limburg <Nevin.Limburg@wvc-ut.gov> wrote:
Chris Mathews is right on, and I like him a lot more than so many of the others, after seeing him moderate the Republican debate last Sunday in NH.

Nevin

>>> "Bruce Gundersen" < bruceg@chpdc.com> 1/10/2008 5:37 PM >>>
They said that Romney was running scared, tired of the fight and going to
let McCain and Huckabee fight for a while and put everything into Michigan
because if he did not win there, he is finished.

They are so far off, and They are afraid of him.

Chris Mathews said earlier that Romney was the guy the Demos were afraid of
more than anyone because he had it all, values, smarts and experience.


-----Original Message-----
From: Nevin Limburg [mailto:Nevin.Limburg@wvc-ut.gov]
Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2008 5:30 PM
To: bruceg@chpdc.com; 'Tijs Limburg'; 'Garth Limburg'
Cc: dmx311@gmail.com; ralph@morasi.com; keeslimburg@myldsmail.net
Subject: RE: Huckabee and McCain??

Interesting.  thanks guys for keeping me informed and up to date.  Keep it
up!

Nevin

Nevin Limburg, CEcD
Business Development Manager
Economic Development / Redevelopment Agency West Valley City, Utah
Office:  801-963-3322
cell: 801-232-0542
Cell:  801-232-0542
Nevin.Limburg@wvc-ut.gov

>>> "Bruce Gundersen" <bruceg@chpdc.com> 1/10/2008 5:29 PM >>>
The report I just heard on MSNBC was that Romney has now pulled all his
staff out of S Carolina.

-----Original Message-----
From: Nevin Limburg [mailto:Nevin.Limburg@wvc-ut.gov]
Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2008 5:23 PM
To: Tijs Limburg; Garth Limburg
Cc: bruceg@chpdc.com; dmx311@gmail.com; ralph@morasi.com;
keeslimburg@myldsmail.net
Subject: Re: Huckabee and McCain??

He could still take S Carolina, if he takes Michigan.  His strategy now to
put everything into MI is a good one.  He must and he will beat McCain
there, who won Michigan in 2000 over Bush, then Bush beat him in S Carolina
and it was downhill then after that for Bush.

The first shots of the "Rebellion" to start the Civil War were from S
Carolina.  Romney could come into S Carolina on a wave after Michigan and be
the rebel who steals a victory over Huck and Mc.

Am I dreaming?  For Mitt, always, but with faith and hope mixed in.

Nevin

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No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database: 269.19.0/1218 - Release Date: 1/10/2008
1:32 PM




No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database: 269.19.0/1218 - Release Date: 1/10/2008
1:32 PM



No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database: 269.19.0/1218 - Release Date: 1/10/2008
1:32 PM






--
Tijs Limburg
Chairman and CTO of DMX - Digital Media eXceleron, Inc.
Get eXcited!
www.dmxed.com

Blogs:
http://phystrings.blogspot.com/
http://getoutofthedark.blogspot.com/

The "Don't Tread on Me" Flag: The First Navy Jack is enjoying renewed popularity these days thanks to an order from the Secretary of the Navy that directs all U.S. Navy ships to fly the First Navy Jack for the duration of the War on Terrorism.