Sunday, November 12, 2006

Bush and Rumsfeld - Why so late?

BUSH STIFF ARMS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY
Late move confuses both sides as questions fly; We have the 'answer' to why it happened so late

So Rummy and Bush decided to make the 2006 election period extremely interesting. And that is an understatement. From all reports and sources, it can be gathered that would Rumsfeld have resigned his post in September with Bush's approval, Republicans would have had a greater chance at keeping control.

So why did they wait till Nov 8th to announce the resignation. A resignation that, again, from all reports can be gathered, was in the stream of conciousness for at least a few weeks before the election. Bush even made up his mind on the Sunday before the election day. So, what is the purpose of this? Shouldn't Bush have helped the party by announcing this before the election?

My Dad and I think we have an answer. Bush's answer is that he didn't want to make it a political issue. This is a good, and necessary, political answer. But signs point to Bush stiff arming his own party. The Republican party was facing, and had faced, all kinds of corruption issues. They were madly overspending, much to their own demise and Hypocirsy, since the Newt Gingrich GOP prided itself on constraint, balanced budget, and a corruption free environment.

The Republicans in congress also fought against some bills that Bush wanted passed, such as immigration reforms. These bills were halted, torn apart and killed in the Capitol, logn before they had the chance of reaching the White House. So, what do you do with a Congress that is flailing, unsopportive of your homefront agendas, and helping to make you look bad?

You let Rummy resign after the Dems beat the party handily.

You don't campaign big on supportive issues such as the economy.

You don't campaign in tough races.

Don't be fooled. Carl Rove is a campaign genius. If this wasn't a 'good' strategy for Bush, he wouldn't have let it happen. But, I think they see internal issues in the GOP that they didn't and don't like, so they turned their backs.

Bush knows how to work with blue dog Democrats. He did so in Texas as governor, and many great things were passed for the state. Ronald Reagan also knew how to do it, and did it his entire 8 years in office. (There were also more Democrats in congress then, than the newly elected 228 democrat member house and 51 member senate)

And lastly, by having Democrats win, and then giving them what they wanted (as you sometimes do to a child to let them learn a lesson: that what they want isn't always best for them) in firing Rumsfeld, they now can no longer blame him for the current affairs in the war. They'll only have themselves to blame, because now the silver lining is exposed.

Now the silver platter is theirs to drop. Time will tell if Nanci Pelosi can live up to her words, and truly work with the President as she said in her victory speech. I should add that only two days before, she called the President an idiot and other malicious names.

Take it or leave it, this is our theory.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Polls Mostly Correct - Gridlock and Rising Stock Market Ahead

NANCY PELOSI TO BRING 'CALIFORNIA GRIDLOCK' TO WASHINGTON

Gridlock is usually good for the stock market

With some analysts saying that the stock markets are undervalued some 25% and the probability of more concise and refined legislation, including the hope of decreased spending as legislation gets halted, and some budgets get sliced and diced, the stock markets should rise to great levels. However, a consevative majority congress should still be in support of the current Defense spending, which will be good for defense contractors, helpiong the Dow Jones even more.

Expect the new balances in the Congress to keep both parties on their feet, especially about taxes. I don't expect to see tax legislation passed that would raise taxes, as the populus, whether Republican or Democrats, are conservative. Taxes will not be able to be raised as the legislation will not be passed, because neither type of conservative likes raised taxes.

This will be great for business.

The election also sets an amazing stage for the upcoming presidential election. Interesting, because changes to the War in Iraq will not be able to pass without serious scrutiny and bipartisanship. Even with this, however, the President will continue to control the war, although congress could be able to force some moderate changes.

The only thing I don't like (and many democrats like Harold Ford feel the same way), is that Nanci Pelosi will be house speaker. If you thought Hastart was bad, just wait to see what she'll conjure up. Hopefully, the Bush administration and the House will be able to come together on these issues, rather than causing bitter divisions within the federal government. I highly doubt that would be good for America.

If the Republicans can still hold a majority, or at least tie the Senate, we may see interesting governmental actions there as well. This will be interesting to watch from a government history standpoint, especially if the Vice President has to exercise his tie breaker votes, etc.

To add to this, I see it interesting that Senator Lieberman was re-elected as an Independent (Largely from Republican voters, I would bet). His support of Judeo-Christian values should help make close votes in the senate quite fun to watch. I think analysts have missed the point that Lieberman will be a boon to Republicans more than he will to democrats when it comes to actual votes on the floor. I don't think they have considered this when talking about seat powers and majorities in the senate.

In any case, the next two years will be a fun political show to see which party can produce the best legislation for the country, Iraq, and the economy, which is soaring at this point.

It will also spawn a great political debate setup for the Presidential election in 2008. Where will Hillary Clinton differ with Mitt Romney or Senator John McCain? The next two years will tell. If you ask me, these years may actually make both sides sick of Clinton and McCain, setting up another Gubanatorial presidential hopeful: The "Blue State" Republican Mitt Romney (Frmr Gov. Mass), who I think can mediate both parties very well. Now, for Vice President...