Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Polls Mostly Correct - Gridlock and Rising Stock Market Ahead

NANCY PELOSI TO BRING 'CALIFORNIA GRIDLOCK' TO WASHINGTON

Gridlock is usually good for the stock market

With some analysts saying that the stock markets are undervalued some 25% and the probability of more concise and refined legislation, including the hope of decreased spending as legislation gets halted, and some budgets get sliced and diced, the stock markets should rise to great levels. However, a consevative majority congress should still be in support of the current Defense spending, which will be good for defense contractors, helpiong the Dow Jones even more.

Expect the new balances in the Congress to keep both parties on their feet, especially about taxes. I don't expect to see tax legislation passed that would raise taxes, as the populus, whether Republican or Democrats, are conservative. Taxes will not be able to be raised as the legislation will not be passed, because neither type of conservative likes raised taxes.

This will be great for business.

The election also sets an amazing stage for the upcoming presidential election. Interesting, because changes to the War in Iraq will not be able to pass without serious scrutiny and bipartisanship. Even with this, however, the President will continue to control the war, although congress could be able to force some moderate changes.

The only thing I don't like (and many democrats like Harold Ford feel the same way), is that Nanci Pelosi will be house speaker. If you thought Hastart was bad, just wait to see what she'll conjure up. Hopefully, the Bush administration and the House will be able to come together on these issues, rather than causing bitter divisions within the federal government. I highly doubt that would be good for America.

If the Republicans can still hold a majority, or at least tie the Senate, we may see interesting governmental actions there as well. This will be interesting to watch from a government history standpoint, especially if the Vice President has to exercise his tie breaker votes, etc.

To add to this, I see it interesting that Senator Lieberman was re-elected as an Independent (Largely from Republican voters, I would bet). His support of Judeo-Christian values should help make close votes in the senate quite fun to watch. I think analysts have missed the point that Lieberman will be a boon to Republicans more than he will to democrats when it comes to actual votes on the floor. I don't think they have considered this when talking about seat powers and majorities in the senate.

In any case, the next two years will be a fun political show to see which party can produce the best legislation for the country, Iraq, and the economy, which is soaring at this point.

It will also spawn a great political debate setup for the Presidential election in 2008. Where will Hillary Clinton differ with Mitt Romney or Senator John McCain? The next two years will tell. If you ask me, these years may actually make both sides sick of Clinton and McCain, setting up another Gubanatorial presidential hopeful: The "Blue State" Republican Mitt Romney (Frmr Gov. Mass), who I think can mediate both parties very well. Now, for Vice President...

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